For more than 1,000 days, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned Western allies in Kiev that “escalating” the war by providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself will result in dire consequences — potentially nuclear — for the country's Western allies.
Putin's threats intensified this month after the Biden administration finally gave Kiev a green light to launch long-range American weapons at targets deep inside Russia. In response, Putin updated Russia's nuclear doctrine and launched new nuclear ballistic missiles in Ukraine. The message was received as a clear threat by Ukraine’s supporters: “Don’t test us.”
But nearly three years into the war, these developments have taken on a familiar rhythm. Every time Ukraine requested tanks, fighter jets, cluster bombs, or long-range weapons, the allies hesitated whether to allow them, fearing that the conflict would escalate and provoke a Russian response. And
every time the West finally agreed to Ukraine's request, Russia's deadliest threat went unfulfilled. What was taboo one week became normal the next.
Despite Putin's heightened threat since the recent breakdown of the taboo, there is little reason to believe that this time will be any different, analysts told CNN.